In his meetings with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., is navigating a challenging new reality: a place under America’s security umbrella no longer comes with a discount at the customs window. When it comes to trade, Trump throws allies and adversaries into the same basket. But Marcos thinks he can negotiate an agreement that preserves and even strengthens the US-Philippines trade relationship.

Donald Trump prefers to treat the waters as a bargaining chip, so the United States may reduce high-profile provocations — such as close-in reconnaissance — and instead increase its “gray” tactics and low-intensity military exercises.

Strategic adjustments, characterized by economic decoupling, high-tech restrictions and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific region, will transform the bilateral relationship and the shape of global security itself.

2025 has brought swift changes across the Indo-Pacific, and the Philippines’ growing involvement with Trump’s policies and the Taiwan question could prove to be one of the most pivotal factors in the future of the region.

The trajectory of deep-sea mining remains uncertain. The U.S. and China represent opposite ends of the governance spectrum — one unilateral and rapid, the other multilateral and cautious. Whether these paths will converge or remain in tension is unclear.

?Here are some suggestions for promoting peace, stability and development in the Asia Pacific region. For starters, to avoid bloc politics and confrontation or even a new cold war in the Asia Pacific, China, the U.S., Russia, Japan and India should actively develop new dialogues and exchanges and build on existing ones.

Philippine-China relations seem to be in a state of despair as the Marcos regime is opening the door for heavier U.S. presence on its islands, especially those nearest to China. By bringing these rival powers into tighter quarters with one another, how can both sides ensure that each others’ interests can be well protected without crossing any red lines?

The withdrawal of the Philippine coast guard cutter BRP Teresa Magbanua from Sabina Shoal highlights rising tensions in the South China Sea, where China and the Philippines assert conflicting territorial claims. While it opens the door for potential diplomacy, the incident also underscores the Philippines' growing alignment with the U.S. amid concerns of becoming collateral damage in broader geopolitical rivalries.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at RAND focused on a range of national security policy and Indo-Pacific security issues. He closely tracks intensifying U.S.-China competition throughout the region, including Asia and Oceania. Grossman was interviewed recently by Wang Zhijin, a reporter for China-US Focus, at the recent Xiangshan Forum in Beijing.

China wields the largest naval capacity in Asia, and has shown no qualms about deploying it to contest waters in its vicinity. The Philippines sitting so near China have faced the brunt of China’s aggressive actions, and must navigate the situation with great strategic acumen.