Since the U.S.-China trade war began in April, Chinese companies have faced high tariffs and economic uncertainty, prompting them to reshore production to the U.S., shift manufacturing to developing countries, and diversify into other markets. Despite higher costs and regulatory challenges, they are balancing supply chain stability with expansion in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe to maintain their low-cost business models.

While no one has waved an official checkered flag in the Sino-American race for AI supremacy, the markets are betting that the United States will prevail. The chipmaker Nvidia recently became the world’s first $4 trillion company (and its CEO, Jensen Huang, has acquired global rock-star status). Microsoft, the biggest investor in OpenAI’s for-profit entity, is not far behind, with a valuation of $3.7 trillion.

The intent of the United States was to coerce China into making concessions. But this didn’t work. China was only inspired to reach out to other trading partners and become more independent through home-grown technological development.

Trump’s ‘America First’ protectionist tactics are supposed to create advantages for the U.S. in trade and freeze out China in theory, but expect that the world needs America’s consumers to continue. New connections forming amid the trade war could mean instead, the U.S. is left out in the cold.

The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a “deal” that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently – and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced that its long game is paying off.

A new global stage is clearly being set as Western powers begin to react to China’s rivalling interests, and the U.K. may be positioning itself as a middle ground for the 21st Century.

Strategic adjustments, characterized by economic decoupling, high-tech restrictions and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific region, will transform the bilateral relationship and the shape of global security itself.

An extreme imbalance of power appears likely to emerge in the future. Donald Trump’s personal attitude will be a critical factor influencing the sensitive political dynamics of the island, and doubts about the reliability of U.S. support will continue to grow.

In this interview, Fudan University’s Professor Wu Xinbo warns that U.S.-China relations have worsened across political, economic, and security fronts since 2019, emphasizing that mutual trust is now near zero and urging a mindset shift toward cooperation in an increasingly interconnected world.

U.S. restrictions aimed at obstructing China’s technological development have, in practice, accelerated China’s pursuit of technological self-reliance.